Is there a way to guarantee the player going first (or second) wins? After lots of experimentation, it seems the optimal strategy is a race to resolve Ad Nauseam. Since you declare each card as it comes up, you control exactly how much damage you take, and then have overwhelming resources. One of the key tactical considerations is using pitch spells to control your opponent's options.
Starting player A plays Underground Sea, Chrome Mox imprinting Force of Will, Dark Ritual, Cruel Bargain, with 2 cards left. Then player B casts Disrupting Shoal exiling Meditate. Player A Spell Pierce with the Mox. Player B exiles Simian Spirit Guide and Elvish Spirit Guide to pay for Pierce. Player A bounces his U-Sea for Daze. B lets Daze resolve, then with his last three cards Commandeers pitching Misdirection and Foil. Now A has just a U-Sea in hand and Mox in play, and B has 4 cards after his draw step. There are numerous ways this becomes Ad Nas, but I would play City of Traitors, Lions Eye Diamond, Lotus Petal, cycle Street Wraith, in response break LED for BBB, drawing Ad Nas, and cast it, leaving the Petal still available. Then you can draw Sorrow's Path, Mox Diamond, Mox Opal, Cabal Ritual, Zuran Orb, Mishra's Bauble, Urza's Bauble, Tendrils of Agony; going to 4, and cast lethal Tendrils.
Lets try again. Player A begins, but B plays Gemstone Cavern exiling Daze. A is afraid of playing into this open mana, and goes for something different. A plays Tropical Island, Manabond, goes to end step and drops Wasteland, Ancient Tomb, Island, Snow covered Island, Horizon Canopy. The plan here is to Canopy into Last Word for whatever B attempts, on the assumption B will only be able to get off one card advantage spell. But B is smart and sets up for Ad Nas and just Stifles A's Canopy draw and goes off.
B starts with Caverns->Daze again. Of all the free counters, Daze helps A the most, since he will be the only player with an Island, and a land in hand could become fodder for Foil eventually. A plays Seat of the Synod, Lotus Petal, Mox Opal. Taps Opal for Dark Ritual, Cruel Bargain with 2 cards left. B casts Mindbreak Trap. A taps Synod for Pierce. B taps Cavern and exile a spirit guides, so Pierce resolves with no effect. By still having another spirit guide available, this prevents A from using the card-neutral Disrupt with his other mana. Instead A has to use Petal to Dispel the Mindbreak. B still has 3 cards left, so lets the Dispel resolve, and again Commandeers the Bargain ftw. But if instead A does use Disrupt, then B pays for it with the other spirit guide, so the Mindbreak resolves, leaving A to pass the turn with empty hand and tapped artifact land. B has 3 cards after draw step, so uses the [City Traitors, LED, Street Wraith] plan to go off with Ad Nas. A rule we learn here is that anytime a player has +3 cards over the opponent with an empty stack, is effectively a win.
The problem seems to be that A must use too many cards generating mana for his business spell, and there are too many free counters for B to sit on. So maybe A's best option is to just make a land drop and pass the turn. After all, if B can win defensively with 5 cards to A's 7 in the Cavern scenario. Then A should be able to win defensively at 6 to 6.
So B starts with Caverns->Daze, A just plays U-Sea and Mishra's Bauble, activates it and passes. Endstep, B casts Funeral Charm on discard mode. A lets that happen, so after B's draw step, both have 5 cards. B plays City Traitors and casts Manamorphose floating 1. A Pierces, B spends his 1 and exiles a spirit guide. Now its 4 cards to 2 in A's favor, with morphose still on the stack. If A commits to countering the morphose, he can Force pitching Misdirection, and B has to protect his card draw so will Disrupting Shoal pitching Future Sight. A lets that resolve and then B with zero cards in hand spends his Manamorphose mana and draw to Night's Whisper, which is now his 3rd spell of the turn so A can Mindbreak and be left with a card and tapped island to B's empty hand and tapped 3 mana. On his turn, A draw steps up to 2 cards which become Ancient Tomb and Meditate. Against an empty hand this becomes Lotus Petal, Dark Ritual, Cabal Ritual, Ad Nauseam. A's graveyard is Bauble, random card to Funeral Charm, Force of Will, Spell Pierce, Mindbreak, so after Petal and Dark Ritual, Cabal has threshold, which gives a black floating after Ad Nas, ftw.
Back up a step, if B had led with Night Whisper instead of the Manamorphose, then A couldn't Mindbreak and the other 2for1 counters have been used. B casts Lotus Petal and passes with one card. A draw steps up to 3 cards and plays Vault of Whispers and targets self with Sign in Blood. B breaks Petal to Disrupt. A exiles the remaining Spirit Guide and draws 2. A has to pass, dangerously since there's no more useful 1 card free mana and no more 2for1 counters. B draws his one card with 3 total mana, one of any color. Meditate seems best, but Mindbreak is still available to A, and he has to go off here with only 4 cards total and Petal has been used. Instead B casts Pain's Reward, B is at 18 from Night Whisper and A is at 17 from Sign in Blood and Force of Will, so B immediately bids 16, going to 2. Now he can Chrome Mox imprint Mindbreak Trap and play Crystal Vein, sacking into Meditate. Keeping the chain going, B pitches Sorrow's Path to Mox Diamond, cast Dark Ritual for Cruel Bargain, going to 1. With these 4, B casts Mox Opal, Tinder Wall, sacking for RR, Manamorphose into 2 black and a 5th card, then Cabal Ritual with threshold and Tendrils of Agony for 22.
Maybe instead of Sign in Blood, A should play Drowned Catacomb and pass with 2 cards and UU available. Then B starts his mainphase with untapped Cavern, Traitors, Petal and 2 cards. B casts Pain's Reward, A casts Envelop, B casts Dispel which resolves, A casts Force Spike countering Pain. Now its A's turn and he can Sign in Blood, and play Gemstone Mine with one card left. If B tries to Meditate, A will Red Elemental Blast. Then A has 3 mana and 1 card on his next mainphase vs B's empty hand and thus Cruel Bargain, and there's still enough acceleration left to go off.
Back up a step, if B had led with Night Whisper instead of the Manamorphose, then A couldn't Mindbreak and the other 2for1 counters have been used. B casts Lotus Petal and passes with one card. A draw steps up to 3 cards and plays Vault of Whispers and targets self with Sign in Blood. B breaks Petal to Disrupt. A exiles the remaining Spirit Guide and draws 2. A has to pass, dangerously since there's no more useful 1 card free mana and no more 2for1 counters. B draws his one card with 3 total mana, one of any color. Meditate seems best, but Mindbreak is still available to A, and he has to go off here with only 4 cards total and Petal has been used. Instead B casts Pain's Reward, B is at 18 from Night Whisper and A is at 17 from Sign in Blood and Force of Will, so B immediately bids 16, going to 2. Now he can Chrome Mox imprint Mindbreak Trap and play Crystal Vein, sacking into Meditate. Keeping the chain going, B pitches Sorrow's Path to Mox Diamond, cast Dark Ritual for Cruel Bargain, going to 1. With these 4, B casts Mox Opal, Tinder Wall, sacking for RR, Manamorphose into 2 black and a 5th card, then Cabal Ritual with threshold and Tendrils of Agony for 22.
Maybe instead of Sign in Blood, A should play Drowned Catacomb and pass with 2 cards and UU available. Then B starts his mainphase with untapped Cavern, Traitors, Petal and 2 cards. B casts Pain's Reward, A casts Envelop, B casts Dispel which resolves, A casts Force Spike countering Pain. Now its A's turn and he can Sign in Blood, and play Gemstone Mine with one card left. If B tries to Meditate, A will Red Elemental Blast. Then A has 3 mana and 1 card on his next mainphase vs B's empty hand and thus Cruel Bargain, and there's still enough acceleration left to go off.
Magic is a very complex game. Is there a way to guarantee that A will win? A flowchart of relevant possible counter moves B can use and how they are overcome?
Theres two main branches, games where B holds 7 cards into A's first mainphase, and games where B starts with Gemstone Cavern, and if so, what card he exiles. Daze seems right, but depending on A's optimal plan, it might be something else, perhaps even Ad Naseum, though we've demonstrated above that chaining draw4s is sufficient for lethal Tendrils. It might be worth exploring other methods of winning like Show and Tell or Entomb+Reanimate on Iona. Using Orim's Chant/Silence/Abeyance as a must counter starting spell might be a way to force opponent to 2for1 themselves out of the game. The games seem to be decided rather quickly, but Ancestral Vision might be an option if can play conservatively enough. Dredge?
Theres also some interesting engines like Predict milling Deep Analysis. Standstill and Ideas Unbound are big card advantage if they work. Shared Discovery is unlikely to be castable, but if one were to incidentally get say Basking Rootwalla, Narcomoeba and Bloodghast, etc in play through other efficient means, its broken. Chain of Smog could lead to interesting decisions.
I will explore this further and post again.
Lists of some notable cards:
Free Counterspells = Pact of Negation, Force of Will, Misdirection, Disrupting Shoal, Mindbreak Trap, Commandeer, Foil, Thwart
Free Mana = Elvish Spirit Guide, Simian Spirit Guide, Lotus Petal, Mox Diamond, Mox Opal, Chrome Mox
Draw4 for 3c = Meditate, Cruel Bargain, Infernal Contract, Pain's Reward, Trade Secret
Draw3 = Standstill, Ideas Unbound, Ancestral Vision, Shared Discovery
Draw2 = Night Whisper, Sign in Blood, Predict, Deep Analysis, Thoughtcast, Perilous Research, Scarscale Ritual, Skulltap
Draw many = Ad Nauseam, Future Sight, Diminishing Returns
Relevant 1c Counterspells = Spell Pierce, Disrupt, Force Spike, Dispel, Nix, Red Elemental Blast, Pyroblast, Envelop, Guttural Response, Mana Tithe, Spell Snare, Stifle, Ricochet Trap, Divert
Mana Acceleration = City of Traitors, Ancient Tomb, Crystal Vein, Dark Ritual, Cabal Ritual, Tinder Wall, Rite of Flame, Seething Song, Eladamri's Vineyard, Pyretic Ritual, Desperate Ritual
So if I were to reveal cards off the top of my library, i can declare them as whatever right? Theres gotta be a faster win con than 5 mana ad naus. Something with blightsteel colossus or cheating out an auto win card.
ReplyDeleteWe should play for money!
ReplyDeleteThis is certainly an interesting thought experiment. There has to be a critical mass of cards in which a player autowins. The goal would then be to slow roll and to accumulate card advantage until that threshold. I would think this favors player B since having an extra wild card > having a land in play. At worst, I would want the blue leyline on the draw. You have enough "disruption" to stop player A and it allows to you play any draw/disruption card you want in the future at instant speed.
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